It happens every year around draft time as QB’s more than any other position take a huge leap up draft boards despite the numbers saying that less than 50% of QB’s drafted in the first round in the NFL are successful and the further down they are drafted the numbers are even worse!
Noted QB Bust
Who’s The biggest QB bust of all time Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell? I say Russell because he was the number 1 player taken in the 2007 draft. The most recent QB busts has to be from the 2015 draft class where the first two players taken in that draft Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have proven to be bust for the teams that drafted them and both have been dumped by their former teams. They are still young enough to possibly change their narrative.
Yes, you have some for whatever reason that are passed over that come into the NFL and have success. Russel Wilson is the most recent proof of someone that was overlooked as he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2012 NFL draft as 5 other QB’s went off the board before him.
This year once again all the QB’s are overvalued and this strange BLIND OBSESSION many have for the position is really troubling. On my BIG BOARD I have the QB’s ranked lower than just about any player ranking I can find on the internet as I have Joe Burrow at #9 and Tua at #10 and I still think I am ranking them high at that point!
The chart at the bottom shows the success rate at the various positions on average in their first 5 years. If you look at the chart it shows that DB, OL & LB’s are the more successful or SAFE picks to make overall but an argument can be made for the RB position especially ones taken in the first round! While taking an OL player in any round will get you success especially in the 2nd round as they have the greatest success of all!
When you look at the QB’s it is quite clear that they are the least successful of them all and in every round you don’t see them get beyond a 50% success rate.
Why is that the case? It is because they are over valued and are forced to start on the next level sooner than many of them can handle and when they are drafted so high along with that comes very high expectations and a very short hook.
This needs to change as the NFL needs to catch up with the times when it comes to the QB position.
What do I mean?
Well, lets go back to 2011 when the team owners made a change to the rookie wage scale drastically scaling back an out of control salary rate as rookie QB’s were being paid a kings ransom and it often lead to teams being bankrupt trying to pay for an unknown player and if they were a bust (Greater than 50% chance they were) than teams were stuck and in bad shape!
Sam Bradford was the last rookie QB to benefit from the old rookie scale:
On April 22, 2010, Bradford was selected by the St. Louis Rams as the first overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. On July 30, 2010, Bradford signed a six-year, $78 million deal, which had $50 million of guarantees and has a maximum value of $86 million making it the largest contract ever for an NFL rookie.
You can see why it was necessary for the NFL to make changes in the salary rate for rookies but they have failed to take advantage of it as they have allowed these QB’s to be overrated and still waste a top pick on a 50% chance of success! With the lower cost of paying a QB you would think teams would slow walk the young QB’s they draft.
Now when they get them in camp and if they ball out and prove worthy then they should start day one but teams would be smart doing the draft process to lower expectations and under sale the position.
So looking at the chart below it is obvious that teams are safer taking the less sexy pick and if all these teams start to pass on a run at QB until after the top 10 you might find that they might have greater success at the QB position.
They need to have a plan in place to take a QB later in the round with no intent on playing them until they actually EARN the job by beating out the incumbent QB on the roster. It’s time to stop gifting these young QB’s a job until they actually prove they are ready.
It would do two things, reduce the price you are paying these young QB’s and lower expectations, allowing them time to develop without the pressure of being a top 10 pick in the draft. It also would give teams a 5th year option to hold on to these young QB should they prove wort it.
It won’t happen as “Stupids Is What Stupid Dose” and the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting the same results!
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The Dolphin Seer 