Flip A Coin And Make A Pick!


Coin Flip User Defined SQL Function | Vertica

In my previous article I noted that first round QB’s drafted are less than 50% successful. The Odds of getting heads flipping a coin is greater than the success rate of all the resources teams have used to get the QB position right.

If the coin is tossed and caught, it has about a 51% chance of landing on the same face it was launched. (If it starts out as heads, there’s a 51% chance it will end as heads). If the coin is spun, rather than tossed, it can have a much-larger-than-50% chance of ending with the heavier side down.

Yet still every year there is this insane obsession from both teams and fans alike to throw hundreds of millions of dollars at these 20+ year old kids with the hope they are the next great QB.

We tend to forget they are still kids and far to much pressure is often put on them to  produce right away. Some of the scouting reports will give a harsh take on the personalities of some of these kids. Ask yourself (especially if you are much older like me) how mature were you at 20 years of age and did father time not help you in your maturity?

Most if not all of these kids are single and get a lot of money and will need time to adjust, marriage can also bring about maturity for some of these young players. Remember how Big Ben was often in trouble and actually settled down after he got married?

The money teams spend to research which QB to draft would be better spent making sure they have the right people in place to properly coach and develop these young men. Teams spend millions of dollars scouting, evaluating, researching, probing, prodding & interrogating these kids only to be right less than half the time?

I am a true believer that it matters more where these QB’s land than if they will succeed.  The majority of them will end up on a bad team, that is why they are drafted high because that is the way the NFL has correctly structured things.

It’s up to the team owners to have the right coach in place and that his head coach has the proper positional coaches in place before they take on the responsibility to draft a young QB.

The Process

There needs to be a goal and a process to follow to aid in the development of the young QB’s drafted. It just might require time to develop and if you know that before you draft a young QB than it would be wise to allow that time for development because you can do more harm than good putting a QB out there when he is not ready.

Young QB’s like Dwayne Haskins and Josh Rosen are examples of players who were failed by the lack of proper planning as both of them needed time to develop and if the teams they are on are not filled with the talent and supporting cast to assist in the development than to put them out there is just a bad move that will only ruin their early development as it will be obvious that they were in over their heads.

It is far to early to consider either one a bust but the lack of patience coupled with putting them in too early can start their young careers off on a bad note.

The NFL Draft next week will have 4 QB’s possibly taken in the first round and they all should be concerned with who is drafting them because some teams are not ready IMO to take on a young QB.

The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to draft Joe Burrow and Joe should be concerned for a few reasons. First the head coach Zac Taylor is a bad choice and not experienced enough to be a head coach and his first season of 2-12 should be of concern. I recall complaining that he was Ryan Tannehill’s Assistant Quarterbacks in 2012.

  • Head coach Zac Taylor comes to Cincinnati after two seasons with the L.A. Rams, where he served as assistant wide receivers coach in 2017 and quarterbacks coach in ’18.
  • The Bengals QB coach is Dan Pitcher with 4 years of coaching experience you can not even find him on Wikipedia..Played QB at SUNY Cortland. 2012—Assistant coach (AC), Cortland State. 2012-13—Scouting assistant, Indianapolis Colts. 2014-15 Pro scout, Indianapolis Colts. 2016-present—AC, Bengals.

When you look at the staff that Zac Taylor has assembled there are far too many coaches on his staff that have very few years of experience and that can be a good thing or a bad. I personally prefer a much more veteran coach on the staff especially if they intend to draft a QB.

That is why even though at first I was disappointed that Brian Flores let former O.C. Chad O’Shea go because I thought  he did a very good job with what he had to work with I have no problem getting a veteran coach in Miami to assist in the development of our young QB or QB’s should Miami select one next week.

Fins Up!

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