Now that Tua Tagovailoa has declared for the draft, everyone is speculating what the Dolphins should do. As your Dolphin Seer let me tell you exactly what they should and should not do.
I’m still disappointed that Miami find themselves picking fifth in the NFL draft because it has complicated things more than what they could have been had the Dolphins not won a couple of meaningless games.
Now that the season is over I just wonder if head coach Brian Flores might have some regrets. ( I do!)
Nonetheless picking fifth is where we find ourselves in the draft. What complicates things are the 4 teams ahead of us as well as a few teams behind us.
GM Chris Grier did a great job of acquiring resources for the draft, the Dolphins currently have three first round picks and a projected 14 overall picks in the upcoming 2020 NFL draft and 24 when you add 2021.
Chris Grier in a previous press conference said that he has the resources to do anything he wants and that’s almost true but not quite true.
The Dolphins have three options to consider, trade up, stand Pat or trade down. Each option in their own presents multiple choices to make. So let’s consider the options.
Option One, Trading up:
There are four teams picking ahead of the Dolphins, two of which I feel will not give up their picks for anything, both LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State defensive end Chase Young are locks for the number one and number two picks.
The Cincinnati Bengals and the Washington Redskins are out of the equation when it comes to options for Miami so in spite of Chris Grier thinking he can do anything he wants, I doubt he has the ability to trade up for either of the top two spots in the upcoming draft.
The Detroit Lions have the 3rd pick followed by the New York Giants who pick one spot ahead of Miami at 4th. The Lions have a quarterback that’s still relatively young and good so I don’t anticipate them drafting a quarterback with their 3rd pick in the draft.
The New York Giants just drafted Daniel Jones a young quarterback who had a decent season so they most likely are not in the market for a quarterback either.
Both teams have leverage and will most likely try to get the Dolphins to trade up if they want to draft Tua Tagovailoa, knowing that the Dolphins have a lot of resources.
It all depends on how desperate the Dolphins are and if they actually intend to draft Tua Tagovailoa. Also there will be other teams looking to move up the draft board ahead of Miami to draft Tua Tagovailoa.
The Lions and the Giants have an opportunity to acquire more draft picks with their position in the 2020 NFL draft.
So what should Miami do?
With the Dolphins having so many holes to fill under no circumstances should the Dolphins give up any of their draft picks.
The Dolphins should not trade up!
Option two, stand Pat:
This is my favorite option of the three, Miami should stay at 5 and take the best player available because they’re going to get a good player.
The Dolphins should not listen to any noise surrounding the upcoming draft whether Detroit or the Giants have been offered trade opportunities by other teams seeking to draft Tua Tagovailoa.
Teams like the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots all of which have aging quarterbacks that are near the end of their careers if not at the end might be looking for a young quarterback in the draft.
The Dolphins have to many needs that it makes no sense to give up one pick in this year’s draft, there are plenty of opportunities including free agency and next year’s draft to get a quarterback.
The Dolphins should stay at 5 and take the best player available.
Option three trade down:
I initially did not explore this option because It never cross my mind until I started thinking about Miami’s options, the Dolphins just might not be as interested in drafting Tua Tagovailoa and might be willing to trade out of the 5th spot and pick up more draft picks in the second and third rounds.
It just might be the best move by this team if they can trade down and pick up extra picks because you can never have to many when you’re rebuilding, so if a team is interested in moving up and getting a specific player where we are sitting then I say trade down because for this team it’s about the numbers, because it’s a numbers game the more picks they get the greater opportunity they have to find future star players for this team.
There are risk associated with drafting Tua due to his injury history as well as his current status It appears as if the Dolphins are in a no win situation.
If they draft Tua and he never fully recovers from his injury or proves to be injury prone throughout his career It will set the team back years and they will be criticized for not passing up on the injury prone player.
If they pass up on Tua Tagovailoa and another team takes him and he turns out to be a franchise quarterback the Dolphins will be criticized for passing up on another franchise quarterback.
That is why option two is the best option because if they stand Pat and some team trades up ahead of Miami and takes Tua then it’s a win-win no matter what happens to Tua Tagovailoa because the Dolphins would be off the hook.
But if he’s there at 5 when it’s their turn to pick they have no choice but to draft him and hope for the best, the good thing is Miami have three picks in the first round this year.
With all that being said the Dolphins might just decide to seek out their franchise quarterback in free agency.